A Patriots Manifest August 07 2008
William White
There is a technical term for being right too soon that term is “Wrong!”. Like missing a question on a multiple guess test and thus having the right answers for questions 25-100 listed on the answer sheet in the spaces for questions 24-99 being right too soon causes compounding problems. So here some timing cues:
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You should be bearish in years ending in 0-2 and 7. Why 7 is a bit of a mystery but 0-2 is a result of the census in the US: 0 is the census year, 2 is the first election of the reapportioned and 1 is book ended between two bad years. In this three year period there is a huge shift of pork barrel spending as representatives from states losing population play musical chairs with the fewer seats to run for in 11/X2. X7 may have a similar political origin but I don’t know what it is.
The second year of a presidential term is usually bad too. The second year of Carter, Bush and Hoover were relatively good. The other one term wonder of the past 100 years was Robert Taft who went on to become chief justice of the supreme court.
Bad years coming up. 2010-12, 2014, 2017 and 2018. Being cautious I wouldn’t bet any money I couldn’t afford to lose on 2013 or 2019 making big enough returns to pay for my medical bills if the market is the least bit choppy.
Assuming that Russian Roulette with an automatic is not your game of choice more timing information is needed. And here it comes:
Over the past half century being fully invested in the stock market or in passbook savings Mayday through Halloween which investment would have created better returns? If you answered savings account put a gold star on your forehead.
So now you know everything you need to know? Right! The reason almost all losses occur between May 1st and Nov. 1st is cash flow. From 4/15-6/15 cash must be raised to pay taxes. Late August through September money is raised to send kids off to college. So May and even more so September are bad months in the market, for that matter so is Feb. due to Christmas bills. But not always. If September is a good month then short everything in sight from Oct 1st to Dec 31st .
The first year of a presidency is usually pretty good but not if a two term president is succeeded by the new leader of his party such as Bush the elder, Hoover or Taft. If McCain is elected the economy will most likely tank. Generally speaking the economy tanks no matter who succeeds the retiring incumbent. For example, Kennedy was in Dallas because he had effectively zero probability of winning in 1964 and was trying to prevent Texas becoming a Republican stronghold when he was assassinated. Harding worked himself to death coming to power after Wilson’s two terms set off a shortlived depression (1920-1). (The rumors that Harding committed suicide over reports of his illegitimate child[ren] is BS. If the presidency could with withstand openly gay Buchanan in the 1850s then Harding’s mistresses in the wide open 20s were no problem at all.) W is a two term president which is why you should choose the greater evil this time around so you can blame whoever you hate for the economy tanking. Deleveraging which is what is coming up is not pretty. 12 or more years of greater than 10% unemployment is coming up. Peak unemployment should range from 37.5-75% with at least two secondary peaks due to government policies before specie currency and no central banking is restored or possibly worse if that is not done.
In summary study up on ultra short ETFs and remember to come over to the economic dark side where we have chocolate waiting for you.
The second year of a presidential term is usually bad too. The second year of Carter, Bush and Hoover were relatively good. The other one term wonder of the past 100 years was Robert Taft who went on to become chief justice of the supreme court.
Bad years coming up. 2010-12, 2014, 2017 and 2018. Being cautious I wouldn’t bet any money I couldn’t afford to lose on 2013 or 2019 making big enough returns to pay for my medical bills if the market is the least bit choppy.
Assuming that Russian Roulette with an automatic is not your game of choice more timing information is needed. And here it comes:
Over the past half century being fully invested in the stock market or in passbook savings Mayday through Halloween which investment would have created better returns? If you answered savings account put a gold star on your forehead.
So now you know everything you need to know? Right! The reason almost all losses occur between May 1st and Nov. 1st is cash flow. From 4/15-6/15 cash must be raised to pay taxes. Late August through September money is raised to send kids off to college. So May and even more so September are bad months in the market, for that matter so is Feb. due to Christmas bills. But not always. If September is a good month then short everything in sight from Oct 1st to Dec 31st .
The first year of a presidency is usually pretty good but not if a two term president is succeeded by the new leader of his party such as Bush the elder, Hoover or Taft. If McCain is elected the economy will most likely tank. Generally speaking the economy tanks no matter who succeeds the retiring incumbent. For example, Kennedy was in Dallas because he had effectively zero probability of winning in 1964 and was trying to prevent Texas becoming a Republican stronghold when he was assassinated. Harding worked himself to death coming to power after Wilson’s two terms set off a shortlived depression (1920-1). (The rumors that Harding committed suicide over reports of his illegitimate child[ren] is BS. If the presidency could with withstand openly gay Buchanan in the 1850s then Harding’s mistresses in the wide open 20s were no problem at all.) W is a two term president which is why you should choose the greater evil this time around so you can blame whoever you hate for the economy tanking. Deleveraging which is what is coming up is not pretty. 12 or more years of greater than 10% unemployment is coming up. Peak unemployment should range from 37.5-75% with at least two secondary peaks due to government policies before specie currency and no central banking is restored or possibly worse if that is not done.
In summary study up on ultra short ETFs and remember to come over to the economic dark side where we have chocolate waiting for you.
The views expressed by William White are his and his alone and may not be the views expressed by A Patriots Manifest. Thank you .... Michael Roller...